The proposal has a small chance to become a law in the Republican Senate. But the forthcoming adoption of the bill on the introduction of universal checks on all types of gun purchase planned to be achieved on Wednesday will be the first case when the Chamber since August 1994 dismissed the main bill on gun control when it approved a ban on assault weapons as part of a comprehensive draft law on crimes And while 77 house democrats – mostly from rural, blue-collar and southern districts-opposed the prohibition of attacks in 1994, supporters expect that democratic deviations on the background of a check bill may not reach double digits.
"I expect the Democrats to be united," said Democratic Representative Ted Decichis of Florida.
The readiness, even the desire of most home Democrats to adopt new arms control measures, shows how the party's evolution towards a coalition based on the metropolitan region shifts its incentives ̵
But these social issues are likely to be much less divergent for today's party-oriented metro. The large vote expected on Wednesday for the bill review bill is likely to be only a precursor to the House's aggressive campaign over the coming months on a number of other cultural issues that once divided the party – from giving the legal status to immigrants without documents from the country as children of their parents expanding protection to gay work and other measures to restrict access to weapons, for example by increasing the minimum age for purchase.
"I think we will see a consistent and consistent legislative defense of weapons," said Peter Ambler, executive director of Giffords, a control group of weapons formed by the former Republic of Gabby Gifford. "Weapons were previously a problem that separates Democrats and unites republicans. Now it's the exact opposite."
Moving forward, this changed configuration of the Democratic Party is likely to ruin issues related to taxes, costs, and the role of government. The new split may include deputies from wealthy suburbs that are opposed to the most ambitious plans of their liberal colleagues from safer democracies such as the health of one payer.
"The lines of fracture today are surrounded by" Medicare-for-all ", and free colleges and guaranteed federal jobs are things that were in talks that went with the Green New Coupon, "notes Mat Bennett, executive vice president for state affairs of the centrist Democratic Group" The Third Way. "
Although these disputes may approach, voting on Wednesday afternoon will reveal the degree of consensus sery democrats on social issues unthinkable in previous decades
When Clinton handed over firearms bills in the early 1990s, he faced a broad opposition from Democrats representing rural and blue cells. In 1993, 69 House Democrats – more than a quarter of those who voted – opposed the Brady bill, which required verification checks for all weapons sales from licensed dealers. The 77 Democrats who opposed the ban on arms assault in 1994 represented a total of 30% of those who voted. (Both measures took place only through substantial support from settlers from Republicans representing suburban areas outside the South).
In the mid-term elections of 1994, two months after Congress approved a ban on assault, the Republicans rose to control of the House and Senate, and especially devastated throughout the South. Although the Republican wave embraced even many Democrats who opposed the Clinton control agenda, these losses encouraged the party from further gun control initiatives. And when Democrat Albert Gore was severely losing to the 2000 presidential election, partly because he was not able to convince the majority in the strong-blue collar of the states where the National Association of Small Arms was brutally opposed to him (including New Hampshire and his native Tennessee) Democrats, that the control over the weapon has become a losing party. After the House was lost in 1994, the Democrats controlled the House only four years later, and then again took it to the 2018 elections.
As a presidential candidate, John Kerry humiliated this problem in 2004 (even photographed) on a goose hunt ) and President Barack Obama almost completely avoided him in his campaigns in 2008 and 2012. In 2009 and 2010, while Democrats had a unified control over the government, they did not put forward any serious proposals for gun control.
"I do not remember anyone who even assumed that then we should make weapons," said Assistant Ambler. to a powerful House Rules Committee at that time. – It was out of the table. Back in 2011, 43 Democratic deputies voted in favor of NRA-backed legislation that would limit state restrictions on arms supply, requiring each state to comply with the permission for covert wear provided by any other state.
But after Obama's reelection in 2012, two factors prompted the Democrats to revise. One of them was the trauma of long mass shootings, starting with Sandy Huck and continuing with the lithium of tragedies, so that they are known only by their places: Charleston, Nightclub Pulse, Las Vegas, Parkland.
Another factor was the growing awareness that the voters they feared most shied away from the use of arms control measures – especially blue collar workers and rural white whites, especially men – and had already abandoned the party over other issues. Meanwhile, more rigorous arms control measures have consistently attracted majority support in polls from electoral districts that the party has increasingly relied on, in particular for minorities, suburban and well-educated whites, especially women.
The current Democratic party officials began to change when Obama put forward a universal bill to test after Sandy Huck. Fifty Democrats in the Senate (including two independent, gathered with the party) voted for it in 2013, and only voted "yes," one of them, the leader of most Senate Harry Reid, did it only from procedural reasons. (The bill failed to reach 60 votes needed to overcome a republican pilot, and the House refused to consider it in the control of the PS.)
By 2016, Hillary Clinton put forward a more aggressive arms control program than any party presidential candidate since Gore in 2000. who supported NRA-backed legislation at a nationwide concealed carrier license, declined to six. And in 2018 dozens of contenders for the democratic struggle in guest races advertised their support for additional arms control measures, in particular, inspections of general experience. On the election day, 40 Democratic contenders beat Republican officers who have high rates of NPA support, according to Gifford estimates.
"Forty Democrats have been replaced by Republicans, and almost all of them have made weapons safe in their campaign," said Dewch. The key to reorienting weapons policy is that democrats from such suburbs in all parts of the country – even at South Africa – In general, they support stricter restrictions. Lucy Macbat, an African-American democrat, defeated a republican figure in suburban Atlanta, underlining his support for arms control. The Gifford campaign closed its election campaign last fall at high cost, I Kiss helped Democrats Lizzie Fletcher drive out the Republican representative of John Qylberson in the suburbs of X'stone. "
" If I told you that a few years ago, when we closed it, you would tell me that I do not have the key to political "Ambleer said," We made a weapon in a part of the message that made it free. "
Although" blue dogs ", concentrated in rural areas, provided the main internal democratic resistance to arms control in previous years, supporters are convinced that the bill about world-wide testing will support virtually all of today's predominantly blue dog forum, starting with its chairman, representative of Stephanie Murphy, Asian-American and strong defender, representing a place outside of Orlando. Despite the fact that blue dogs are likely to resist the most extensive plans for leftist taxes and expenditures, most of them conveniently cover the liberal path of the cultural party.
Today's blue dogs "do not look like … guys who voted against these things under Clinton," Bennett said. "The most openly conservative Democrats, centrists, even most of them will be on board these (social) things."
Ambler suggests that more Republicans will go to support the bill on verification of the background than the Democrats will be able to withstand. Both Ambler and Deutschcheck believe that Democrats in the House will move to other weapons-related laws in the next two years, such as measures to raise the minimum age for the purchase of guns to 21; the "red flag" laws aimed at facilitating the confiscation of weapons from persons considered to be "extraordinary" risks of violence; and possibly legislation on the prohibition of certain types of semi-automatic assault weapons and ammunition magazines of large capacity.
Deutch introduced legislation to regulate assault weapons in accordance with the National Firearms Act, which prohibits fully automatic weapons. "We will be discussing military weapons and whether they belong to our community or not," Deut says.
The measures adopted by the Chamber, of course, still face very The long chances in the Senate, which is controlled by the Republican majority, are rooted in rural countries where possession of weapons is more widespread and NRO is strong. But even then, a strong voice approves a universal wage test on Wednesday, which will be an important milestone in the reconfiguration of Democrats in the party that promotes the cultural priorities of metropolitan America.
At the same time, the overwhelming opposition to the bill awaiting Republicans at home will highlight the Republican Party's identity as the voice of mostly voters outside the largest centers of the population. (President Trump has already warned on Monday that he will veto a bill if he cleans the two chambers.)
Thus, the new democratic unity of weapons – and probably other social issues – seems certain to reinforce and even accelerate the geographical and the demographic involvement of the parties that have redefined American politics since the last approval of the House of the main draft law on arms control almost 25 years ago.