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US is still the purest dirty shirt among giant producers, Germany falls to the level of the debt crisis, contracts with Japan, China counts on state aid to the private sector



But the American shirt becomes dirtier. Production data in Germany "make the inconvenient reading."

Many of the glowing press of the day focused on the revival of production data coming from China, reported by Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) and official PMI production, both of which returned to (weak) growth, after being in a contraction mode in November

. But less light was received by other PMIs that were also released today, including in Germany, the United States and Japan. And what's happening in Germany and Japan puts China at a different light – the United States remains the purest dirty shirt, which is now becoming dirtier, so to speak.

Germany: Mark makes for awkward reading. all these PMI values, values ​​below 50 mean "reductions", and values ​​above 50 mean "extensions". The PMS index for the IHS Markit / BME production for Germany fell to 44.1
in March, compared with 47.6 in February, to its lowest level since July 2012. At the bottom of the debt crisis in the euro

U The report highlighted the "sharp and accelerated contraction of new orders," with the total number of orders and export orders declining at the fastest pace since April 2009. Reasons have expanded the spectrum of "uncertainty around Brexit and trade tensions, the weak automotive sector, and, in general, global demand."

The production gap in work fell as the "fastest indicator since mid-2009" as producers of eats

Employment for the first time in three years fell in this sector: "The decline was only marginal, but at the same time, it was opposed to solid job creation rates in the previous months »

Production data for March" make for inconvenient reading, "the report says. "Both general new orders and export sales are currently falling at rates that are not observed after the global financial crisis."

PMI measures are based on research by industry executives whose names and companies are not disclosed. These "participants" are asked to evaluate various aspects of their business – new orders, new export orders, employment, backlog, stocks, supply chain delays, input costs, etc. – due to whether each of these aspects increases or decreases. Their responses form subindexes, which are then linked to the general master index (the basis for these graphs). PMI is the opinion of managers about how the economic situation affects their company.

Note: I will place all PMIs below on the same index scale as Germany from 44 to 64 to allow easier comparison of the scale of changes occurring in each country.

Japan: manufacturing sector in bad condition

"The Japanese manufacturing economy ended the first quarter in bad condition, the demand was less dragging production volumes," Economic background for producers "remains a cruel task," according to Nikkei of Japan PMI At 49.2 in March – slightly lower than the February low of 32 months, the index remains in the cut-off mode, "thus signaling a further slowdown." This "ended with the worst quarterly result in Japan's manufacturing sector from the 2nd quarter of 2016 "(I put this chart on the same index scale as in Germany from 44 to 64):

New domestic orders and new export orders declined further. The decrease in export orders was due to a" weaker foreign " selling to Chinese and Taiwanese customers. "Given the decline in orders, production volumes were" cut in the Japanese manufacturing sector for the third consecutive month "- and although these cuts were" only moderate "," They were "the most acute since May 2016." [19659003] Forecast "remained in the capital in the month of March, "came in the eye" global trade concerns, the impact of the incoming tax sales tax, and weak growth in China.

[Китай]: Hopes are concentrated on the government.

Caixin China PMI began operating in expansion mode (50.8) in March for the first time since November, when companies signaled "a bit faster growth of output and overall new work." employment has increased for the first time since October 2013. Production has grown for the second consecutive month, "with the support of a strong, though relatively muted, increase in the total number of new jobs." To sign a contract (I also put this chart on the same index scale as in Germany) :

financing of the se government efforts on private sector revenues and positive progress in Sino-US trade talks, the situation in the manufacturing sector resumed in March.

The official Chinese manufacturing PMI, released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, also cried out to the expansion regime (50.5), after having been in a concise battle since November. "The pickup in the expansion of production came as factories restored production after the holiday of the spring festival," said the state company CGTN (I also put this table in for the same index scale as Germany):

Some subindexes were positive, including production (52.7 out of 49.5), new orders (51.6) and purchases (51.2 from 48.3). And optimism has become even greater as the "expected index of production and economic activity" has grown to 56.8.

But other indices remained rather deep in the contraction mode, including new export orders (47.1), manual (46.4), import index (48.7), and employment index (47.6).

Then there was a size distribution: the PMI index of large companies, at 51.1, was still in expansion mode. But the index for small companies and medium-sized companies remained in the reduction mode at 49.3 and 49.9, respectively.

US: net dirty shirt

The production of IHS Markit US PMI declined to 52.4 in March, the lowest figure since then. June 2017, and "noticeably worse than the trend observed in 2018" (the chart is at the same index level as in Germany):

The output expanded to "the limit the pace that was the weakest since June 2016 "

The growth of new orders" fell to a minimum that was observed in 2016. "Export orders increased only marginally," firms note that the tension in world trade and the current impact of tariffs debt indebtedness index for work somewhat immersed in the regime of reduction. But the employment index "has risen to a solid level."

"The further deterioration of PMI production suggests that the factory sector acts as an ever-increasing leap in the US economy," the report comments. And "everything can get worse before they become better because promising indicators are a cause for concern."

Thus, in this picture of the four largest manufacturing capacities in the world, the German manufacturers are as gloomy as during the Euro debt crisis and very nervous; Japanese manufacturers are experiencing a continuing slowdown; Chinese manufacturers are counting on the government to provide "more calm funding" and "rescue the private sector"; and American manufacturers weaken the growth regime – the slowest since 2016 – and today it is the purest dirty shirt that becomes dirtier.

But the US services sector, which is much larger than the manufacturing sector, still maintains economic growth afloat, as there can be no recession without recall services. Read … Finance & Insurance Won it from the football field without slowing down the huge service sector

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