HANOI – When he swore to "solve" the problem of North Korea before his inauguration two years ago, President Trump made it clear what meant implying the elimination of his nuclear arsenal.
But on the eve of the second meeting with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, the president sounds ready to accept much less, at least in the near future.
"I do not want to throw anyone," he said last weekend. "While there are no trials, we are happy," he added, pointing to the termination of the North's nuclear and missile tests.
When he landed in Hanoi late Tuesday, Mr Trump expressed his resolve to change America's relationship with a nation that had been a cruel and fierce adversary for almost 70 years, and is ready to change the objectives of its administration. , from the immediate dismantling of the North Arsenal to limiting its size and reach.
It is unclear whether these two men will appear in the coming days with any breakthroughs that are in the mix for discussion: the freezing of a nuclear production peace agreement aimed at the official end of the Korean War, or a timetable for parsing North Arsenal.
But they chose the Banks for obvious reasons: this is a lively symbol of how a country that once fought with the University of the State can become a fast-growing economy, even with the preservation of a large dose of authoritarian rule.
And for both leaders it is a moment of critical choice. Mr Kim must fulfill his promise of North Korea's economic development and support the military in order to ensure the survival of his country, while Mr. Trump has the greatest opportunity for his presidency before the diplomatic breakthrough – and the menacing risks of failing to follow the signature after the threat of "fire and rage" only a few months ago.
Trump has an even bigger obstacle: his release from the nuclear deal with Iran in 2015, "terrible" and a naive agreement, he said, has ensured that the country will be able to obtain nuclear weapons.
What the world can learn when he meets with Mr. Kim the second time in a year will he be prepared to accept a weaker deal with North Korea – and whether he can sell it.
North Korea is much harder to deal with than Iran. It already has an arsenal of 30 nuclear weapons as well as missiles that can reach the United States. His commitment to this national project is so intense that Mr Trump's National Intelligence Director, Den Coats, has outraged him, saying last month that the North "is unlikely to completely abandon its nuclear weapons and production facilities" because they are "critically important for  If Mr. Coats is right, President Kim's warm embrace may encourage other countries to sprint into the nuclear line, making sure the United States teaches another nuclear power plant. Trump hopes to stay in memory of history in order to bring peace to the Korean Peninsula. But he also runs the risk of becoming president, whose observations North Korea demonstrated as being able to hit the US missile and blast the hydrogen bomb, and then gave it so much that others also decided to build nuclear arsenals.
Even some die-hard disks in Washington, however, see the potential for speculation by Mr. Trump. "The stars have a peculiar view," said Andy Kim, former head of the Korean mission to the CIA, and a man who last year spoke between two leaders.
Speaking at Stanford University last week, he recalled that the young North Korean leader told Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Pyongyang thinking about the future: "I am a father and a man. And I have children. And I do not want my children to carry nuclear weapons on their back all their lives.
Pompeo left the meeting with hope, but with caution.
The secretary of state like last week asked to think about how the lessons of the Iranian treaty were applied to North Korea. Sounding annoyed, he said that they were "very different situations" and insisted that "the full and final nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula to be verified" remained the ultimate goal.
that President Barack Obama struck over Iran more than three years ago and that Mr Trump has now abandoned. In response to the lifting of sanctions Tehran has decided to remove 97% of its nuclear fuel from the country and suspend virtually all new production by 2030.
"The irony is that the best result for North Korea will look something like an agreement with Iran," said Robert Litwak, who compared the talks at his work at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scientists in Washington.
There are several other comparisons: from Ukraine to Kazakhstan to South Africa to Libya, will also hang over meetings. All abandoned nuclear arsenals or equipment to build one of them. But, as Mr. Trump revealed, there has never been such a difficult problem as North Korea.
Perhaps, for this reason, Mr. Trump departed from the use of denuclearization as a measure of success, while quoting the dialogue itself – and the heat between him and the dictator in half of his age – as a metric of progress. Given the Nobel Peace Prize, he can not come closer to this deal as important as the one that has reached Ronald Reagan with Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union.
t Mr. Pompeo contrasted with Obama's strategy regarding Pyongyang, which, he said, was tested, prayed and worshiped
. The North Koreans were a threat, "he said. Trump and his national security team are often referred to as the North Sea Mortar for Missile and Nuclear Test, which is now the 16th month, as their greatest achievement so far.
The moratorium on testing is in fact significant. As Siegfried Hecker, former chair of the Los Alamos National Laboratory recently noted, "if you can not test, you can not make progress."
And North Korea has not yet demonstrated that it can design an intercontinental ballistic missile nuclear warhead that can survive under the influence of heat and the return voltage through the atmosphere to achieve its goal.
But termination of testing is not denuclearization. In order to achieve progress in this endeavor, Mr Trump must persuade Mr Kim to begin dismantling the country's core nuclear complex in Yongbyon, including the installation of uranium enrichment shown by Mr Hecker eight years ago – and do so under the supervision of the outside. inspectors. It is also believed that North Korea works in at least one clandestine uranium enrichment plant outside Uongbion.
After the first high-level meeting with Mr. Kim in Singapore, Mr Pompeo insisted that North Korea would begin the process by announcing all its nuclear weapons processes, production facilities and missiles. He refused, saying that he was just looking for a list of purposefulness. Mr Pompeo replied that he already has it.
Inventory has since been an important point. But last month, a special envoy to Pompeo, Stephen Bygun, said in his speech that this list could be transmitted later during this process.
This raised a defeat at the White House, where some staff members worked for John R. Bolton, a national security and hawk advisor in North Korea, asked whether Mr Begun refused too much.
There are similar fears in South Korea, where people are confused with Mr Trump's diplomacy with North Korea. 19659009] They support this because they do not see a long-lasting peace on the Korean peninsula until the North remains armed with nuclear weapons, and Mr Trump is the first American president to be prepared to deal directly with any North Korean leader.
An encouraging section for Mr Trump, headed by President Moon Yae-in, who on numerous occasions advocated Mr Kim's willingness to abandon his nuclear weapons in exchange for a better economic future for his country.
show a fall in public confidentiality e in South Korea that the North will actually surrender its weapons. And there are concerns that Mr Trump lacks the patience and attention required for lengthy, difficult negotiations that involve failures.
The greater fear is that Mr Trump could blow up the alliance by taking North Korea half-way as
"It will be particularly bad for South Korea and President Msyan if Trump declares peace and changes the status of US military presence in the South" before denuclearization, said Lee Bun-Chul, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Peace and Cooperation in Seoul. "South Korea will have a huge conservative negative reaction."
The old, conservative South Koreans held protests in central Seoul last weekend, warning that Mr Kim's goal – to break the South Korean-American military alliance and give Mr Trump an excuse to justify his repeated threats to withdraw American troops from the south
Some US officials are concerned about the same.
It is expected that Trump and Mr Kim will sign a certain form of "peace declaration" in Hanoi as a prelude to negotiations on an official peace treaty replacing the uneasy jumble signed at the end of the 1953 Korean War. reality, but some analysts fear that the withdrawal of some troops may become a natural next step.
The United States and North Korea are also negotiating the possibility of opening branch offices, a step towards official diplomatic relations. But it is unclear what Mr Trump will insist on from the north