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Trump's impeachment is forging key voting blocks



As more voters learn about Trump's allegations – that he asked Ukraine to interfere in the 2020 presidential election – both parties will likely get a clearer picture of where the public stands for impeachment. And more evidence that impeachment favors Democrats may spur the moment to count Republicans on Capitol Hill. If impeachment wins the overwhelming majority, Republicans who previously abandoned the presidency could quickly change the calculations – setting Trump on the same lone course that led to the resignation of President Richard Nixon in the August 1974 era.

"From my point of view as a Republican poll, the president's base is still solid," said Micah Roberts, a partner of the Public Opinion Strategy, who oversaw the NBC / Wall Street Journal poll last week. "But college-educated whites are electorally important to us in the suburbs and can only completely change the dynamics and conversation by shifting the total."

In some cases, this change has already begun.

Back-to-back polls this week found more support for impeachment cases than confrontation with white graduates ̵

1; a group that supported Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a slightly larger margin, according to publicly available exit data. More than 50 percent of white colleges in the NPR / Marist College poll said they approved the House Democrats' decision to launch a formal investigation into Trump's impeachment. That compares to a narrower level of support for the move, 45-43, in a POLITICO / Morning Consult poll released Wednesday.

"If you look at college-educated whites, they are probably some of the busiest voters. They are a big and important element of the electorate, and they are the strongest to impeach," Roberts said.

Even more dangerous to the president and his allies is the apparent basis of impeachment support for women – including self-described independent, white women with higher education and women in suburban communities. Five polls from last Tuesday showed that most women support Democratic efforts to remove Trump, ranging from 57 percent of registered women voters who categorically or somewhat approve of impeachment in a CBS poll released Sunday , 62 percent of women at the University of Quinnipiac poll released Monday who said they think "Trump thinks he's above the law."

A POLITICO / Morning Consult poll found a gap of 15 points between independent women who support impeachment (48 percent) and voters in the same demographic who oppose it (33 percent). A similar gap was found in the NPR / Marist survey of suburban women, 57 percent of whom said they supported impeachment investigations against 39 percent who disapproved of the move.

"I really don't like where we are now," said one prominent Republican questionnaire.

Certainly, some of the same polls include evidence to suggest that impeachment could be a political risk for Democrats as they head into the hot election year. And the rapid pace of the impeachment process, coupled with a different level of understanding of the process itself, means that many voters are still on standby in Roberts.

"There are some people who say, 'Yes, of course, Congress should study this,' but there is still a great deal of confusion about what's next," said Ryan Winger, interviewed in Colorado by CBS Poll, which said 12 percent of voters believed Trump would be "immediately removed" if the House were to vote for impeachment. (The next step in the impeachment process typically involves testing in Senate-controlled Republicans in accordance with long-standing procedural rules.)

The Monmouth University poll released Tuesday also highlighted areas of confusion that include traumatizing facts . Of the survey respondents, only 40 percent said they think Trump mentions the possibility of investigating Hunter Joe Biden's son during a July 25 call with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, which led to Pelosi's impeachment. Trump does not use the word "investigation" in the transcript of a bell made public by the White House, but says the former vice president "went on to praise that he has stopped prosecuting" his son.

"At the end of last week, as more people knew about what was happening and processed the messages from Democrats and the Trump campaign, the number of Republicans who said the behavior [Trump’s] was appropriate had actually increased," said Patrick Murray, director The Monmouth University Institute of Inquiry. "It told us how powerful guerrilla filters can be for simply interpreting obvious facts."

For these reasons, GOP officials quietly conduct their own polls to obtain accurate information about how key Two Demographic Groups Respond to Impeachment and Republican Party Response Two people familiar with the effort said the National Republican Congressional Committee is conducting an internal impeachment poll this week, in addition to a national poll of registered voters Republican National Committee September 26 – September 29. [19659002] An RNC official informed of the data said that it showed that 54 percent of independent voters were against moving impeached, and that Trump scored 2 points in a vote against a common Democratic opponent in 2020. The errors in the survey were not immediately clear.

According to the same official, 62 percent of registered voters said Biden should be investigated for possible corruption while serving as vice president. Trump's allies have repeatedly said that the scandal surrounding his phone call to Zelensky would seriously harm Biden, the top Democratic presidential candidate, by simply raising questions about his son's foreign affairs.

Polls that emerged from initial reports of the issue – indicating that the fighter expressed concern about Trump's conversation with Zelensky – underscored the voters' ambiguous feelings about the former vice president. For example, 42 percent of voters in the Monmouth poll said Biden "likely put pressure on Ukrainian officials to avoid investigating" his son while in office, but only 26 percent of voters in the Reuters / Ipsos poll said they believe Biden tries. to hide the potential scandal ahead of 2020.

"The irony is that the purpose of this call was to get information out there that would raise doubts about Joe Biden, but the fact that it all worked out actually made it for the Trump campaign," Murray said, adding that The voting trends he saw indicate that independent voters tend to believe the president's false statements about Biden rather than reject them.

"This does not seem to hurt him in the context of a democratic primary, but it should be addressed in the future by independent voters," Murray said.


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