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Home https://server7.kproxy.com/servlet/redirect.srv/sruj/smyrwpoii/p2/ Business https://server7.kproxy.com/servlet/redirect.srv/sruj/smyrwpoii/p2/ The bear stock market is already in the pipeline, Crescat Capital writes

The bear stock market is already in the pipeline, Crescat Capital writes



Investors wake up at the geopolitical front, as the tension between the two major nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, is heating up.

See below for more details and watch the South Asian trouble as an excuse. for sale, what has already been noticed through global stocks. Disappointment in profits and constant concern over the US economy will also bring some investor encouragement on Wednesday.

At the last stage, the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, returns to the Capitol Hill on the eve of more data. Is the US going to recession? James Dimon, general manager of JP Morgan, told clients on Tuesday that they were closing down on the recession, just in case.

Doubts about the American and world economy are coloring our challenge from Octavio Tavi Costa, Global Crescat Capital analyst who sees a recession, and believes that investors do not see the fact that the bear market has already started.

"In our opinion, September 201

8 marked the peak of the US economic cycle. Now we see a typical rally on the bears' market, and the next is likely to be as sharp as the first one, "Costa said in an interview with MarketWatch. "It's difficult to pinpoint exactly when, but my best assumption is – now until April."

Costa, who says that he is curtailing US and global stocks, shared his "deck of cards", confirming his concern about the US and the global economy. Among them, it is one that shows the highest fall in consumer confidence expectations compared to the current situation, starting with the technological crisis of the late 1990's at the beginning of 2000. He notes that all other similar falls in the last 50 years have led to a recession.



Crescat Capital

He also emphasizes this following, which shows that more than a dozen large economies, faced with negative 30-year spreads of yield, compared to the fund's rate, is the global inversion of the profitability curve. This means that the yield of short-term bonds is traded over long-term ones – a step that reliably predicts former recessions.




Costa says that the bear's markets tend to develop in different ways, with some lagging and quite aggressive moves before the markets calm down again. He noted that in January there was the third largest fall in history under the volatility index VIX or Cboe

VIX, + 2.24%

indicating that investors are less afraid, but at the same time, traditional asylum during times of trouble, gold, was moving upward.

Gold and precious metals are an asset he loves now, and he also reduces the yuan and the Hong Kong dollar to the idea that China is likely to sit on the largest lender bubble in its history.




The last hit Bones in bulls pass through what he says is an indicator for stock valuation that completely misleads investors. That is, the price / profit ratio is the general metric for estimating company shares relative to earnings per share. In fact, he says that S & P has the second highest p / e ratio at the market peak until the recession that lasted until 1871.




Opinion: Why gold will not save your portfolio from the bite of inflation

Market

Dow

YMH9, -0.24%

S & P 500

ESH9, -0.21%

and Nasdaq

NQH9, -0.28%

Yuquheres are reduced. Trade was interrupted for several hours on Tuesday as a result of a technical failure. A lousy session on Tuesday saw Dow

DJIA, -0.13%

S & P 500

SPX, -0.08%

and Nasdaq

COMP, -0.07%

record modest losses.

See the Market Snapshot for more coverage

Dollar

DXY, -0.02%

flat, and gold

GCJ9, -0.05%

and raw

CLJ9, + 2.23%

higher.

The geopolitical tensions of Europe have soared

SXXP, -0.36%

and shares in Asia ended up mixed, with Shanghai Composite

COMP, -0.07%

and Nikkei

NIK, + 0.50%

both higher.

Quotes


Reuters

Followers of Islam Jamiat Thalabi sing the slogans when they celebrate, after Pakistan shot down two Indian military aircraft, Lahore, Pakistan on February 27, 2019.

"If this situation grows, it will no longer be under my control or (prime minister) Narendri Modi." – It was the president of Pakistan and the former cricket star imran khan television statement who added. "We invite you to a dialogue … better understanding must prevail."

His comments arose after Pakistan said it had knocked down two Indian planes and captured pilots Wednesday, the day after Indian warplanes bombed what they called a terrorist camp. on Pakistani soil. The whole mess started after an assault on suicide, which killed 40 Indian militia officers almost two weeks ago. Some video circles do not help, ostensibly indicating that the Indian pilot is overclocked.

Diagram

Our chart of the day show a very bad test day for Pakistan KSE 100 on Wednesday. He completed the day by a decrease of about 2% because investors clearly emphasized it there, while the BSE Sensex index closed with a loss of only 0.3%.

Buz


Reuters

Chowing down

Hanoi summit between POTUS and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is happening, as two shook hands and sat down for lunch in the United States. Among the important points was the free world leader, who told his colleague that less North Korea would help less nuclear nuclei.

A day of indigence awaits investors at a company previously known as weight watchers. WW International

WTW, + 0.61%

warned of incomes, saying that the early push to add members did not go so well and its key winter season began its start.

LOW, + 0.02%

Skip after sale, says he will borrow $ 1.6 billion and the stock will drop. Best Buy

BBY, -0.40%

increases as a result of emissions. The results are also folded with Dean Foods

DF, -1.09%

Campbell soup

CPB, + 2.01%

and Chesapeake energy

CHK, -0.38%

. Area

SQ, + 1.06%

Fitbit

FIT, + 0.76%

HP

HPQ, -0.04%

and Box

BOX, + 0.54%

is among the reporting companies after the closure.

Ignoring the threat of a veto, POTUS, House Democrats (plus 13 Republicans), has approved a bill that blocks its extraordinary declaration over the border wall.

Economy

An expanded view of US trade in December showed a 12.8 percent jump in the country's trade deficit, and Case-Shiller data showed a decline in housing prices to a minimum of 4 years. Still waiting for home sales and factory orders.

We will also receive the second day of the testimony of the Capitol Hill of the President of the Fed Powell, in front of the Committee on Banking Issues, which may be a bit more hotter than Tuesday. [19659002] Read: The current bubble may take 2 paths in this chart – one more unpleasant than the other

Random reading

Former lawyer POTUS Michael Cohen is about to tell the Congress that his former boss was lying and deceiving. Check out his full testimony here.

"Apocalyptic" fire in West Yorkshire, UK, against the backdrop of the rapid pace of winter in the country

The mysterious school "operative", revealed by the police, sued after saying that his life was destroyed. funds for the singer through GoFundMe

"Fortnite" stole our dance moves, say former basketball players

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