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Scenario of the horrible summit of Hanoi: bad deals and small changes



A nightmare scenario leading the second summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Cheng Un, is not so much a "fire and fury" but millions of dead. Rather, some experts fear that the meeting could lead to an ill-advised agreement that would allow North Korea to get everything it wants, while refusing a very small amount even when mercury leaders succeed in a nuclear blockbuster

. Again again in this room this week in Hanoi is a positive sign for two men who seemed to flirt with the second Korean war in 2017, and there, as the White House choked on the eve of the summit, "a huge opportunity"

But when the rates so high, the growing chorus of experts emphasizes the particular risk: this Trump, burned by criticism, that the results of his June meeting with Kim in Singapore were vague at best and frank failure in the worst case, will ignore his more cautious assistants and try luck dig the deal that broke together on the fly with a little preparatory work.

erous? Because, when it comes to North Korean nuclear diplomacy, all agreements are not equivalent.

A look at some of the anxieties that spin before the summit in Hanoi:

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BE NO. South Korean documents were filled with unknown state sources, which indicate that Trump and Kim can conclude a deal that stops far from the road map for the complete denuclearization of the North, which the United States has long insisted on. Instead, Kim could have agreed to relinquish part of his arsenal – its intercontinental missiles, directed to America, for example, or its main nuclear reactor – in exchange for easing harsh sanctions. There is also fear that Trump will eventually organize some kind of collapse of US troops from South Korea or a long-term stop for US-led military exercises.

For Trump, such an agreement can lead to such a necessary breakthrough "breakthrough" [149] Kim, on his part, will make a huge step towards strengthening the North as a nuclear weapons state and, as a bonus, encourages it. As the North North maintains an alliance between the United States and South Korea, it is aimed at overthrowing the seven Kim-all this does not apply to the arsenal of short-term and medium-sized North-American missiles targeting Seoul, Tokyo, and other parts of North Korea. Asia.

Those advocating for such a part of the deal say that this is simply a matter of making reality: North Korea will not abandon nuclear weapons, which it considers to be extremely important in deterring what it calls hostility to the United States, so wise moves must work to first restrict or freeze the most disturbing aspects of the program, and then work for complete denuclearization.

Skeptics say that it will give the North too little in exchange for too little. They want instead to make Pyongyang first to list the details of their nuclear program, and then allow third-parties to check the list and see the demolition of the program.

"Special agreements or permanent negotiations in the absence of a coherent roadmap will allow Pyongyang to dictate the timing, pace and duration of the diplomatic process without interfering with North Korea's nuclear arsenal – recently wrote a Korean expert at the Center for New American Security Doyon Kim.

Trump turned his way to a bad deal, as he did in Singapore in June 2018, abandoning the vital chips that hinder the interests of the United States and the security of the Asian allies, she added.

t 2: KIM AND TUMP ALSO E FOUNDED

Some North Korean experts share a joke: Have you heard that Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump want the same from their summit in Hanoi? The United States has left South Korea.

Amusing or not, dark humor is calling serious doubts caused by Tramp's repeated public statements about deep-rooted alliance between the United States and South Korea, which is seen by many in Seoul and Washington as a major moment

The best example might be the tremendous announcement of Trump in Singapore about the suspension of the yearly s military exercises Seoul and Washington that North Korea goes against the "preparation for an invasion."

Trump called learning very provocative, "reflecting the North Korean language."

Although his lieutenants say that the removal of American troops is not on the agenda in Hanoi, Trump said he wants to eventually return home to 28,500 troops stationed in the south. Only this month, Trump said: "South Korea – we protect them and lose huge sums of money. Billions of dollars a year protect them. "

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FREE NO 3: North Korea has not changed

There is also anxiety that Trump and the South Korean president's president misunderstand North Korea.

" Kim is not going to unilaterally handing out its nuclear weapons, "said Vipin Narang, North Korea's nuclear weapons expert at MIT, in an interview." It is now clear that Trump does not care that Kim will not unilaterally disarm him if he did not confuse Trump definitely with missiles or openly tested nuclear weapons "[19659025] In the North Korean intentions of the liberal government in Seoul, according to critics, Pyongyang, as it has been since the Korean War, still claims to be the only legitimate Korean government, and thus works on the division of South Korea from its a defender in the United States and the consolidation of its nuclear program, even partially, as a way to force Seoul to bid.

North Korea is known to have called its nuclear arsenal a "cherished sword." And the senior North Korean official said last year that the dialogue would not continue "if the United States is trying to get us to a corner in order to force our one-sided nuclear abandonment."

At a recent press briefing, if the North is negotiating A conscientious, high-ranking US official who refused to give his name to the White House rules said: "I do not know if North Korea has made a choice, The reason why we do this is because we believe

Nevertheless, there are great doubts about the intentions of the North.

When two leaders meet in Hanoi, Kim will "continue to lure Trump on his march . to full nuclear weapons, urging Trump to make more concessions than a peace agreement and a reduction in military support for South Korea, "said Sun Yong Lee, a Korean expert at the University of Tufts. "The world" sounds very nice, even hypnotically tempting, but a peace agreement between the United States and North Korea, which allowed Kim Jong Yun to buy more time, only increases the chances of a war.

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Head of the AP Bureau in South Korea and captured Korea since 2005. Follow it at www.twitter.com/apklug


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