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Like Donald Trump and the Fed could ignite the shock and thrill of the market



Executive Director JPMorgan Adam Crisafulli has high hopes in the stock market, but only if the authorities-that-be-take take the necessary steps.

The "shock and thrill" upside scenario includes the cancellation of all US-China tariffs instantaneously, which has led to the fact that some firm-sensitive tariffs have attracted guidance until 2019, while the Fed is required to maintain reserves at $ 1.3 T + If all this happens, SPX will easily make the run to 3K. "

For the bullish prognosis Crisafulli plays the S & P 500 index

SPX, -0.05%

would need to be rotated to more than 200 points, or about 7%, from its current level, according to its note for clients quoted on CNBC on Wednesday

] The Fed has not yet decided on the size of bank reserves that will be posted on its balance sheet. Lewis Alexander, chief economist at Nomura Securities, said reserves are likely to end at 1

.1 trillion.

More color is expected from the FOMC meeting in March.

As for Trump and China, Wall Street analysts make sense that, despite the fact that the president has abandoned the plans for new tariffs for Chinese goods, the stock market will suffer if existing tariffs are not eliminated.

Read: American companies fear that ties with China will worsen

However, Crisafulli admitted that the combination of Fed rotation, corporate profits and trade tensions in China is largely transformed into S & P 500 at current levels.

"There are scenarios with which these questions can still surprise, but the chances of their deployment do not seem large," he wrote.

DJIA, -0.28%

and S & P traded below and Nasdaq

COMP, + 0.07%

leaned above.


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