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Donald Trump still shows some strength toward the Midwest until 2020



Weekly Survey: The Des Moines poll of the region is rated at 46% by Donald Trump's permission in Iowa, while his rating is not approved in the same poll at 50%.
This reflects Gallup's annual Poll in Iowa, which has a Trump approval rating of 45%, and its rating does not correspond to 51%.
What is the meaning: There is no doubt that Trump would have lost if the elections of 2020 were held, and this was a referendum on his post of president. His approval rating was much lower than the rating of his disapproval throughout his presidency.

A much more interesting question is how high the level of its approval should rise in order to have a better chance than a minimum chance to win in 2020.

Surveys, like those from Iowa, show that Trump will be able to win, even if his rating is approved at the national level below the disapproval rating. That is, Trump will be able to do exactly what he did in 201

6: to win the electoral college, despite the loss of voting.

There were four states where Barack Obama performed better than in 2012 that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016: Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If Clinton won the state of Michigan, Pennsylvania, as well as Iowa or Wisconsin, she won the Electoral College.

Iowa and Wisconsin are likely to continue to hurt the Democrats in 2020. Loss in both of these states will lead to the fact that the Democratic Party candidate will not reach 2020 unless it is borne by all the states that have won Clinton, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Despite the fact that the Trump rating (rating approval – deviation rating) is inverted in Iowa, it is not as low as its net rating approval at the national level. During 2018, his net ranking at the national level in Gallup polls was -15 points. This is much lower than in Iowa (-6 points). National Trump numbers are now also much worse than what its numbers are in the Des Moines registry survey. If his net approval rating spreads across the country, he will probably be in a positive territory in Iowa long before he gets into a positive territory throughout the country.

Trump's numbers are not as good in Wisconsin, although they are talking about a similar story. Poll Gallup has a rating of 42%, and its deviation is 53%. This gives you a net rating of -11 points. In other words, the net approval rating for Trump in Wisconsin was 4 points higher than nationally in 2018.

A recent survey by Marquette University from the Badger state brings home the same thing. The survey found that the Trump rating for voters was 44%, with a rating rating of 52%, which is equal to the clean-rating of 8 points. By the time this poll was conducted locally, the average level of polling at the national level had a net Trump approval rating of -13 points. Again, illustrating Trump, being in a better (if still weak) position in Wisconsin than at the national level.
Mid-term results from Iowa and Wisconsin generally support the idea that they have a right to a nation. After we took into account seats in a house that did not have Democrats or Republicans, the Democrats won the National House vote for seven points. The Democrats were able to pick up two seats in Iowa and win a 4-point vote in the state, but this is even worse than the state level, despite the fact that the republican spokesman Steve King is delayed by the scandal. Democrats won a national home vote for 3 points in Wisconsin, taking into account undeniable races. Democrats did not come close to capturing the seat of retired speaker of the Chamber of Paul Ryan.
Democrats now beat the Republican governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin and easily kept their seats in the Senate. However, they only beat Walker to the point. The exit poll from the state had a Trump rating of 48%, well exceeding 45%, which it registered at the national level. This is a turn around from the last Democratic Mid-term Wave of 2006, when Wisconsin was farther to the left than the nation. Then President George W. Bush had a lower approval rating in Wisconsin than at the national level.
In Iowa, the Democrats failed to win a major nationwide race in 2018. They lost the governor's election to the appointed executive governor Kim Reynolds at 3 points. (There was no 2018 exit poll from Iowa, although Trump's popularity in the Des Moines Registry was larger than it was at the national level.)

Of course, just because Trump ahead of its national ratings in Iowa and Wisconsin Now it's does not mean what will happen in 2020. In addition, Trump remains unpopular at the national level that he still does not like any more than he loved in Iowa and Wisconsin, so for that difference between the nation and Iowa and Wisconsin that matters, Trump should become more popular at the national level, or Democrats should appoint an unpopular candidate.

However, these data must be at least alarming for the Democrats. If a candidate from the Democratic Party actually loses Iowa and Wisconsin, she will have to win in a state that has not voted to the left of the nation in the last few cycles to win the Electoral College. It can not be such an easy task.


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