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Does Saudi Arabia really have oil, analysts think?



Officially, Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves of 303 billion barrels of proven reserves. But, many of this oil is a heavy duty crude oil, and it can not be economically produced at prevailing prices. Thus, some of the barrels of Venezuela may in fact no longer fall into the category of "registered stocks".

Believe that the proven reserves of Venezuela have increased from 80 billion barrels in 2005 to 300 billion barrels in 2014. t he pile of new oil discoveries. No, this is the fact that oil prices reached three-digit figures, which made additional heavy oil Venezuela economical for production. In other words, "resources" (oil in the land) were transferred to the category "proven reserves" (oil, which is economic for production).

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, reported 264 billion barrels of proven stocks. in 2005 and 267 billion barrels in 201

4. Barrels from Saudi Arabia were considered economical for production even before oil prices increased. For this reason, I believe that Saudi Arabia has discovered reserves of 16 percent of the total volume, which is most important for the world oil market.

But doubts about Saudi Arabia's reserves remain for many years. In 1982, Saudi Arabia ceased to allow the study of oil and gas data. Before that, outsiders had some access to information about their reserves. When this availability was closed, Saudi proven oil reserves were valued at 166 billion barrels.

However, around 1988, Saudi Arabia increased its estimate of proven reserves by 90 billion barrels. Many experts have suggested that this upgrade is based on OPEC's internal policies. Since the reserves were no longer subject to external audits, there was a lot of skepticism regarding the official figures released by the Saudis.

Skepticism deepened when Saudi Arabia's reserves in the 1990s were estimated at 260 billion barrels, and today, almost 30 years later, they are reported to be 266 billion barrels. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has produced more than 100 billion barrels in the period from 1990 to 2017. How then can their reserves be essentially unchanged? Affected: Does Ocacio-Cortes have the right to refuse nuclear energy?

In preparation for a potential IPO, Saudi Arabia's national Saudi oil company, Saudi Aramco, ordered an external audit of its registered reserves. An external audit found that Saudi Arabia's oil reserves are at least 270 billion barrels

. For example, the oil economist Dr. Mamdouh G. Salame, who is a professor of energy economics at the ESCP Europe Business School, London, recently wrote:

My calculation of the reserves of Saudi Arabia on the basis of the Saudi output after the opening of the Oil in 1938. to the present day (for which we have figures) and the deduction of the annual rate of depletion of Saudi aging fields averaging 5 percent-7 percent over the same period, gives a figure of 70-74bb of residual reserves. My numbers are more or less consistent with the data of other experts. "

I once did a similar calculation. I started with the assumption that the 1982 estimate of 166 billion barrels was correct, and then I just took the Saudi goods from that time. I calculated their total production since 1982 as ~ 100 billion barrels, leaving 66 billion barrels of reserves. I made the same calculation for stocks registered in the USA for the same period of time.

In 1982, the United States proved that crude oil reserves amounted to 35 billion barrels. Until 2005 – and [19459010рр] By the beginning of the boom of shale oil the US proved that stocks had fallen to only 30 billion barrels. But the total production in the United States between 1982 and 2005 amounted to 77 billion barrels.

If we extend this calculation by the end of 2017, then the confirmed US stocks have actually jumped to 50 billion barrels (according to a 2018 statistical survey) of 117 billion barrels of US production since 1982.

To repeat, in 1982 the United States proved that crude oil reserves amounted to 35 billion barrels. In the period from 2017 to 2017, the United States extracted 117 billion barrels of oil, but proven reserves rose to 50 billion barrels. Similar: Can Ukraine Get Energy Independence?

How did this happen? There were new discoveries, technological improvements that allowed us to extract more barrels from existing deposits, and higher prices, which made additional economic resources for mining. have access to the same types of technologies that have improved recovery in the US fields. Therefore, I do not consider it expedient to consider exhaustion at the expense of historical reserves in order to estimate current reserves. Such an event could have assumed that US oil production would fall to zero by 1991. Their published reserves are consistent with the independent audit, and they are in line with US inventories in spite of significant oil production. The world's largest oil producers find the same. Starting from the inventories discovered in 1982, and subtracting the next production, it will not be accurate to predict reserves at some point in the future. In many cases, as in the United States, aggregate output was higher than in 1982.

So far, I have not found any reason to doubt the official figures of Saudi Arabia.

Robert Rapier

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