The Oregon Health Department announced 418 new suspected or confirmed cases of the disease and six new deaths related to COVID-19 on Friday, as new state modeling showed that without more focused efforts to limit the spread of cases are likely to increase sharply with the change of weather.
Dr. Dean Seidlinger, a state epidemiologist and public health worker, outlined three scenarios. Most optimistic is that a 10% drop in transmission will result in approximately 290 cases of daily reporting, and hospitalizations will drop to 20 per day. If the transmission remains at current levels, Sidlinger said, the daily incidence will rise to about 570 a day, and an estimated 40 people a day will need to be hospitalized.
In the worst case scenario, a 5% increase in the number of transfers could increase the daily reported cases to more than 700 with 48 hospitalizations per day.
And this case count does not show the full picture; these are just numbers that could be determined by testing and reported to the state on a daily basis. If the transmission rate remains at current levels, the true number of daily infections could increase from 1,300, the estimated number of cases today, to 2,200, according to the simulation.
To avoid this, Seidlinger urged Oregonians to use common sense, recommended to limit the spread of the virus, especially due to falling temperatures and more people spending time inside.
“The virus is extremely contagious, and when the weather changes and we go inside, it will be more important to practice preventive measures than ever,” he said, noting that wearing masks, practicing social distancing, frequent hand washing and gathering only in small groups are the best. ways to prevent the spread of the virus.
“The numbers are harsh and show why we should take this virus so seriously,” he said.
Where the new cases concern the county: Benton (2), Clacamas (45), Columbia (3), Cous (5), Crook (1), Curry (1), Deshut (18), Douglas (5), Jackson (18), Jefferson (3), Klamath (2), Lane (53), Lynn (12), Mulcher (17), Marion (35), Morrow (5), Multnoma (86), Regiment (13), Tillamuk (3), Umatila (17), Vasco (2), Washington (58) and Yamhill (14).
New fatalities: The 612nd dead was a 50-year-old man from Jefferson County with major illnesses. He received a positive result on October 6 and died on October 14 in his apartment.
An 82-year-old man from Washington County with major diseases died in 613. He tested positive on October 5 and died on October 12 at Providence St. Vincent Medical Center.
The 614th victim is an 88-year-old woman from Curry County with major illnesses. She received positive results on August 8 and died on October 13. Officials worked to confirm where she died.
The 615th victim is a 65-year-old woman from Washington County with major illnesses. She received a positive test on August 7 and died on September 23 at Providence Medical Center in Portland.
The 616th victim is a 94-year-old woman from Hood River County with major illnesses. She received positive results on October 8 and died on October 14. Officials worked to confirm where she died.
The 617th victim is an 81-year-old man from Multnomach district with major illnesses. He received a positive test on September 6 and died on October 2 at his home.
Prevalence of infections: Government officials reported 386 new confirmed infections out of 5,889 people tested, up 6.6 percent of the positivity rate, two points higher than Thursday.
Who got infected: New confirmed or suspected infections increased among the following age groups: 0-9 (19); 10-19 (44); 20-29 (114); 30-39 (78); 40-49 (58); 50-59 (41); 60-69 (31); 70-79 (17); 80 and older (7).
Who is in the hospital: The state said 149 Oregonians with a confirmed coronavirus infection were now in the hospital on Friday. Oregon remains well below capacity, with hundreds of hospital beds and ventilators available.
From the beginning: Oregon reported 38,935 confirmed or suspected infections and 617 deaths, among the lowest in the country. To date, 773,225 Oregonians have been tested.
– Cale Williams; firstname.lastname@example.org; 503-294-4048; @sfkale