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Burnie Sanders could be the next president



As surprising as it may seem that the elderly socialist could have defeated national elections, we all have to awaken to what is now quite plausible that Senator Berni Sanders, I-Vt., May be the next president. 19659002] Although the campaign will take a long time and turn over for the next year and a half, it ultimately comes down to two questions: is there a scenario in which Sanders captures the nomination of Democrats? And if he does, can there be a scenario in which he would be President Tramp head to head? Violating these issues on our own, we must answer both on both.

Before going further, it is worthwhile to deal with the problem of plausibility ̵

1; the idea that Sanders simply can not win because it will be too absurd. Taking into account that almost every professional analyst said the same about the possibility of Tramp's victory, one should make such assumptions as "realistic" in modern politics, and just look at its possibilities.

The argument for how Sanders can win the original is quite simple. At this point in the 2016 cycle, Sanders was 55 points behind the front runner Hillary Clinton and surged enough to do what was supposed to be a coronation in the actual race. One might be tempted to reject his speech as he came out of the weak field as the main choice for those who would like to fight with Clinton's car. Yet, four years later, in a much more crowded field of younger and more diverse candidates, Sanders is still one of the two best candidates.

Now he is on average for RealClearPolitics, he is second only to 22.8%, behind only Vice President Joe Biden, who leads the average by 28.8%. The next closest candidate is Senator Kamal Harris, who is not even divisible by two-digit numbers. He was almost in contact with Biden in Iowa and headed several polls in New Hampshire. Bearing in mind that Biden has been forced to apologize for various aspects of his case several times and is also compelled to respond to allegations of inappropriate contact with women, he should at least be regarded as a very vulnerable frontman. As many competitors have come to Sanders' positions on issues like health care, and there is more competition for the left, he still retains loyal followers. His powerful fundraising operation has since topped this campaign as he announced he had raised $ 18 million in the first quarter. He will have a lot of money to play, and unlike the last time, he will not have to spend him trying to create his own name recognition.

Sanders' greatest vulnerability last time was in older (mostly centrist) democratic voters. and minorities. If he again loses his candidacy, these voters are likely to be abolished. Nevertheless, this time there will be more candidates who will compete for minority voters when the race is ultimately reduced to binary choice. This could work in favor of Sanders. In the primary election in 2016, Trump showed how useful he could be in the crowded field to have a passionate group of mainstream supporters in order to advance the candidacy, even if the rest of the party is slowly warming up when someone challenges the institution. The bottom line is that it's hard to say in a big field where everything can happen that it would not be possible for a leading candidate to take a nomination.

If Sanders went to general elections, it would be even more difficult to assume that he would be toast. How would the Republicans not be inclined to run away against a recognized socialist, the point is that the US is still a bipartisan system, and a candidate from one of the major parties always has a win. In general elections, people tend to fall into party lines and it is hard to imagine that minority voters who may have favored other candidates during the democratic championship were sitting at home if Sanders were a candidate. This is especially true of the historically unpopular Trump. In hypothetical matches of general elections, Sanders beat Trump on average by almost nine scores.

If I had to put money on Sanders, being the next president, would I do it? Probably not. But I would not like to have a large amount of money against him. Function (f, b, e, v, n, t, s) {if (f.fbq) is returned; n = f.fbq = function () {n.callMethod?
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