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As a 3-test minimum change baseball

In order to understand why the Major League Baseball announced that for every pitcher (except the injury or ending inning) that will come to the game in 2020, there will be a minimum of three times, look no further than the White Sox / Angels game since last July 23.

In order to raise the bottom of the eighth inning in Anaheim, Chicago's right-wing Juan Minai allowed Albert Peyuls a single on the left. The manager of Chicago Rick Renterie, who signaled the bullpen about his fourth pitcher of the night, came out.

That's how the eighth inning ended, which was completely played out.

1) Minaya allows Pujols for one.

The rentier signals the soles. It takes two minutes and up to the next step.

2) Jays Fray is in Mineyard. He throws six pitches, knocking out Shohya Okhtani.

Renteriya signals the suspect. Three minutes and 27 seconds pass before the next step.

3) Janmar Gomez enters Fry's discharge.

Renteriya signals for a pitcher. Four minutes and 1

0 seconds pass before the next field, partly because the Angels sent the left Luis Valbuena to Martin Maldonado, and then replaced Valbouen from the right-handed Jeffrey Marthe after White Sox stopped to buy time to change the cups. 19659002] 4) Louis Avilan is included in order to deprive Gomez. He throws eight heights, knocking Martha to finish the inning and his night as Joaquim Soriya goes to the girls' innings.

"Monday is empty for angels and White Sox in the series," White said. Sox speaker Jason Benetti as Avilan entered. It is said that the first half took 17 minutes and 24 seconds from the first step of Minai to the last Avinan. It breaks down into "7:02 baseball time and 10:22 non-baseball time," with the latest, including 6:14 for medium-sized inning commercials, 2:13, waiting for the relirls to finish the warm-up after returning from the break, and 1:55 that Renterie walked to the mound three times.

(Here you can see the full gap of inning.)

This is an extreme example that we will provide. This does not happen in every game every night. But this is all this, similar sequences. The changes in the middle titer are plague at the pace and the game. They stop the action and do not add anything in return. The less we see them, the better.

More jugs, more breaks in the middle of inning

In 2018, 799 different jugs appeared in the game, a new record. This is a record that breaks annually from 2013, which is not surprising. If we go back to 1998, the first year of the era of 30 teams, there were 557 cups, which were in 4864 games. In two decades, in almost the same number of games, the number of cups per game increased by 2.6, from 6.1 to 8.7.

This will not change, for the most part. Beginners are not going to throw 300 innings again. It does not happen. But the increase in pitcher, or more precisely the relay, also increased the volume of change .

If we just look at the number of relief appearing, which lasted a maximum of two stroke, we can see that the mass change also. By the Second World War, as a rule, there were fewer than 200 such performances throughout the sport. Recently in 2004 we were under 2,000 general performances. Now we are regularly in the range of 2300 to 2500.

Based on each game, it is not quite fast, obviously, because the number of teams and games has increased over time, and from this point of view, it still happens less than once for the game. It is also true that, according to the percentage of relief speeches, fallen or less, has actually fallen over the past few years, but it is also the function of so many, even more general, appearances of relief. As a raw material, it's more than ever.

If there is an argument that this rule changes the game too much, this may not be the case, but the point is that the game has changed significantly. No matter how you think of "the right point in the history of baseball," the game in 2019 does not look like that. Many years ago there were no games with eight relays. There were not pitchers in for a fair test or two. If anything, it can make a baseball look a bit more like this of course. Changes, whether good or bad, always occur.

What we showed above was simply "the appearance of two relief or less," because it is a good way to show this effect over time, but this is not entirely a rule. As stated in the rules, there will in fact be a requirement that the jug collides with "at least three chops or by the end of half an inning."

So, how much does this really have an impact? In fact, maybe not so how much do you think.

How much does this really change things?

We need to divide it into "the appearance of a relief of zero, one or two strokes, where the inning ends," thus freeing the pitcher from the requirement to stay, and "where the inning has not ended," because this is now important. If we look at the last 20 seasons, we can see that the amount of relief that does not last until three beats has increased significantly … but the number of performances where the jug did, and not to reach the end of inning does not have

Basically, we are looking at about 800 such acute relapses every year, plus a small effect on the duration of the "opening" look, because we are only looking for release for these data. Although this has not changed noticeably over time, it is still noticeable. There are 26 weeks in the season of the highest league of baseball, and we saw 779 of these performances in 2018. It's about 28 times a week, or roughly one per team per week. This is not much. This is nothing.

As Matt Eddie from America's Baseball showed, we have already seen a slight increase in the columns that appeared in the form of relief, most likely because if beginners cast fewer feeds, you will need longer relays to pick up

The result here may be damage to the LOOGY type – this is the "left hand" "- as Andrei Chaffin or Jerry Blevins, but this probably increases the value of those pain relievers who can walk a few pitches without large split platoons like Josh Hader or Andrew Miller. If this changes the meaning from specialists to the best jugs, the better.

It does not end with a strategy, it changes it

One common argument against this idea is that it limits the strategy, since Managers will no longer go through the chess match that we described above in the White Sox / Angels game. It's good or bad depends on your own interpretation, but this may also not be true.

Consider this hypothetical situation: there is two outs and people, the next three strikes are leaps / right / right, the manager has two interesting options …

A) Bring him a left killer to try to complete the inning. In this case, he tries to finish the inning immediately, knowing that his pitcher has a better chance of escaping from the first attacker, but may be weaker than the next two.

B) Bring the best general jug. In this scenario, he puts a pitcher with a worse chance to get out of the first striker, but is more likely to get out of the next two, which he will be forced to encounter.

Obvious. it also affects the manager's decision. The strategy will not go away. It will be just another. The left will also not go, because you are not going to bring your left hand to face a group of young Kyl Schwarzer, Chris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, for example. These will be only different left-handers, those who can do more than one.

We can see which of the teams will be most affected.

There is a widespread interest here, with 52 of the Indians – largely due to Oliver Peres, who was extracted 19 times out of the law, until Marlins, who only made it seven times.

Now it is fair to say there is another way to get there. You can argue for a fine, say a graph added to the graph, for changing the average step, or simply limiting these changes. These ideas are also working. But nobody claims that it's fun to sit through the flow of changes, where the manager slowly goes to the mound, the TV program is interrupted, and minutes go by without a step. This does not fix all problems. This fix this problem. Only this makes it important.

Mike Petriello – an analyst at MLB.com and a podcast host for the Statcast

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